Forecasting Tren Pencarian Masyarakat Indonesia Mengenai 5G di Era AI dan IoT
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35473/jamastika.v4i2.4466Abstract
Abstrak
Penelitian ini menganalisis dan memproyeksikan tren pencarian masyarakat Indonesia terkait teknologi 5G menggunakan metode Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES). Data penelitian berupa time series dari Google Trends periode 2020-2024 dengan total 262 observasi. Metode SES dipilih karena kemampuannya menangkap tren dalam data univariate dengan computational complexity yang rendah. Data dibagi menjadi training set (250 observasi) dan testing set (12 observasi) dengan rasio 95:5. Model SES berhasil dibangun dengan performance metrics pada training set menghasilkan RMSE 4.99 dan MAE 3.58, sementara pada testing set diperoleh RMSE 10.88 dan MAE 10.24. Model digunakan untuk memproyeksikan 30 bulan ke depan, menunjukkan tren pencarian yang cenderung stabil dengan fluktuasi minimal. Hasil forecasting mengindikasikan minat masyarakat Indonesia terhadap teknologi 5G akan tetap konsisten dalam jangka menengah. Temuan ini memberikan insights bagi stakeholder untuk strategic planning pengembangan infrastruktur dan kebijakan teknologi 5G di Indonesia.
Kata Kunci: 5G, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Google Trends, Forecasting, Time Series
This study analyzes and projects Indonesian public search trends related to 5G technology using Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) method. Research data consists of time series from Google Trends covering period 2020-2024 with total 262 observations. SES method was selected due to its capability to capture trends in univariate data with low computational complexity. Data was divided into training set (250 observations) and testing set (12 observations) with 95:5 ratio. SES model was successfully built with performance metrics on training set yielding RMSE 4.99 and MAE 3.58, while testing set achieved RMSE 10.88 and MAE 10.24. The model was used to project 30 months ahead, showing search trends that tend to be stable with minimal fluctuations. Forecasting results indicate Indonesian public interest toward 5G technology will remain consistent in medium term. These findings provide insights for stakeholders in strategic planning of 5G infrastructure development and technology policy in Indonesia.
Kata Kunci: 5G, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Google Trends, Forecasting, Time Series
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